The approach for an identification and forecast of convective and thunderstorm activity is twofold:

• The identification and nowcast
• The definition of conceptual models for the environment of the convective developments.

One important diagnosis tool for convective events is not included in the material, namely radar. In this connection the question arises whether satellite observations have any advantages for convective developments compared to radar information.

The examples in the four periods clearly show that the advantage of satellite imagery is its larger coverage area. Three of the cells which influenced the Balkan Peninsula, especially Croatia and Bosnia and to a lesser extent also Slovenia, developed from very small cells over the Italian west coast and even more to the west. Therefore it is easy to detect and follow these features first in the satellite imagery and then to supplement weather and sferics observations. The development images allow a good possibility for an early detection of new cloudiness and for the differentiation of the life cycle. But there are also limitations, and new methods like object detection seem to be necessary.

As could be shown in several examples, nowcast methods are for the time being an adequate tool for an MCS forecast.

The use of conceptual models for the environment of convective developments indicates typical features in relevant parameters fields, especially in vertical cross section fields. In this case study superadiabatic layers have been the most important feature in common, but also the vertical extension and variation of TA with WA as a key parameter and convergence in a thick layer were recognized in all cases. All MCSs which developed at the leading edge of the frontal surface showed the classical distribution of conveyor belts, with a Warm Conveyor Belt below and a much cooler and drier relative stream from behind the front above; in this case such an effect was intensified by a jet streak crossing the front and by the transportion of dry air at higher levels on the leading part of the front.